Heavy rainfall events in Kenya are set to increase in intensity, with extreme precipitation becoming more frequent, according to a new climate study assessing changes in East Africa's rainfall patterns. The research, published in the Theoretical and Applied Climatology Journal last month, highlights how global warming is driving shifts in rainfall extremes with major implications for agriculture, infrastructure, and livelihoods. "The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events are also projected to increase with increased greenhouse gas emissions," finds the study by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). Researchers warn that East Africa is expected to experience "an increase in both the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation events," leading to more frequent flooding.
A photo of motorists using the Thika Superhighway during cold and rainy weather on March 2023.
Photo Kenya Met Kenya's changing rainfall patterns align with recent seasonal outlooks from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), both of which forecast erratic and extreme rainfall for the upcoming March- April- May (MAM) season.
Kenya Met's latest projection in the Climate Outlook for the March- April- May (MAM) 2025 "Long Rains" season anticipates near-to-above-average rainfall in parts of western Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin, and the Rift Valley, while below-average rainfall is expected over northeastern Kenya and parts of the coast. "The season is likely to be characterised by a normal to late onset, with generally poor to fair distribution in both time and space," the Met stated in its forecast.
